Patna: The NDA is poised to retain power in Bihar for another term, breaking a 20-year trend of anti-incumbency with a significant and widespread mandate. As of 2:30 PM, the alliance led in 201 of 243 seats, marking an impressive increase of 76 since the 2020 Assembly elections. The BJP emerged as the most powerful entity in the state, winning 91 out of the 101 seats it contested, achieving an extraordinary 90% success rate, and asserting itself as the dominant partner in the coalition. The JD (U) secured 79 seats, placing it in second position. In stark contrast, the Grand Alliance faced a severe decline, plummeting from 110 seats to just 36.
The NDA successfully flipped 83 seats previously held by the Grand Alliance, including five strongholds that the opposition had maintained for 12 elections. The RJD-Congress alliance, which dominated these constituencies for three consecutive elections, has experienced its most significant loss of influence. The NDA’s success is extensive. In Tirhut, they are leading in 56 seats, an increase of 20; in Magadh, they have surged ahead in 38, also a gain of 20. In Shahabad, the alliance, which previously won only two seats, is now ahead in 20, a leap of 18. Gains are also evident across Mithila, Ang Pradesh, and the Seemanchal-Kosi region.
In a state election often influenced by caste dynamics and local patterns, the scale of the NDA’s gains across nearly all regions indicates a unified vote that transcends traditional divisions. The NDA’s five key winning factors include a women-focused welfare initiative that shifted voter loyalty. The most effective electoral strategy for the NDA was Nitish Kumar’s Women’s Employment Scheme, which transferred Rs 10,000 to 12.1 million women, commonly referred to as “Das Hazari.” Across India, cash assistance programs for women have yielded success in nine of the ten states where they have been implemented since 2023. In Bihar, these programs helped mitigate the anti-incumbency sentiment that had built up over Nitish’s two-decade tenure.
Surveys reveal that 48.5% of women voted for the NDA, with 37% specifically endorsing the scheme. Analysts suggest that the transfer served as not just financial support but also as a political message to a voter base that has consistently backed Nitish. The influence of Chirag Paswan restored JD (U) losses. The JD (U)’s historically poor performance in 2020, where it dropped to 43 seats, was significantly affected by Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) candidates, who impacted its margins in 34 seats. This year, Chirag participated within the NDA, winning 29 seats and reversing JD (U)’s prior losses, boosting its total by nearly 48%.
Analysts note that this alliance reunited upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Mahadalits, forming a social coalition that the Grand Alliance struggled to counter. The NDA’s narrative of “Jungle Raj” successfully linked the RJD to its 1990s legacy of crime and lawlessness, a message that resonated with women, Dalits, and EBCs. Conversely, the Grand Alliance focused on allegations of vote theft and social reforms, but this message did not gain traction outside its core supporters. Even Tejashwi eventually shifted focus from vote theft to employment and migration issues. The opposition was paralyzed by internal conflicts over seat-sharing.
The NDA announced its seat-sharing arrangement just six days after the election dates were revealed, while the Grand Alliance struggled to present its formula even weeks into the campaign. Internal divisions were apparent, with alliance partners competing against each other in eight constituencies, and disagreements over leadership roles further complicated matters. Analysts believe that this lack of coordination diminished confidence in the coalition’s governance capabilities. The NDA’s high-energy campaign, led by Modi, Shah, and a host of campaign stars, contributed significantly to its success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted 14 rallies and a roadshow across 115 constituencies, mainly in regions where the NDA sought to regain ground.
Home Minister Amit Shah held 28 rallies and engaged in damage control with party rebels. Chief ministers from eight BJP-led states, Union ministers, and Bhojpuri film stars also contributed to the momentum. In contrast, the Grand Alliance’s campaign largely relied on Tejashwi Yadav alone. The NDA’s results indicate not just an electoral victory but a structural one, underpinned by welfare initiatives, social coalitions, superior messaging, and an unmatched grassroots presence. With the BJP now the dominant force in Bihar and Nitish Kumar likely to return as chief minister, the state is entering a new political era, characterized by the alliance’s stability and the opposition’s decline.