Patna: The latest trends in the Bihar elections highlight the increasing impact of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the Seemanchal area. As Asaduddin Owaisi’s party achieved impressive results across five to six important constituencies, early indicators showed a significant setback for the Mahagathbandhan, which seems to have miscalculated AIMIM’s organizational strength. According to recent data from the Election Commission, AIMIM candidates are moving towards secure leads in multiple seats. Analysts suggest that the party’s performance has revived concerns the Grand Alliance left unresolved in 2020, particularly regarding its failure to include Owaisi despite his growing influence in Muslim-majority regions. Observers note that the Mahagathbandhan misjudged AIMIM’s expanding support base.
The consistent groundwork by AIMIM, especially in Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar, has changed traditional voting trends. Political analyst Pushyamitra remarked, “Owaisi fielded strong local candidates, which led to direct contests.” A notable portion of Muslim votes has shifted, leaving Mahagathbandhan candidates lagging behind NDA opponents. Several constituencies experienced triangular or four-way races among AIMIM, RJD, Congress, and NDA candidates, a situation that favored the NDA. Commentator Omprakash Ashk noted that AIMIM’s ascent also signals a long-term backlash: “RJD had taken in AIMIM’s former MLAs, which eroded trust. Owaisi’s team has been active on the ground for five years.
This outcome is partly revenge and partly a resurgence.” AIMIM’s state president Akhterul Iman has emerged as a key figure this election cycle, leading in Amour by nearly 38,000 votes. In other areas, Mohammad Sarwar Alam (Kochadhaman) is ahead by about 23,000 votes, Mohammad Tausif Alam (Bahadurganj) by nearly 18,000 votes, Mohammad Murshid Alam (Jokihat) by over 28,000 votes, and Gulam Sarwar (Baisi) by approximately 15,000 votes. These margins indicate AIMIM’s consolidation rather than a fleeting success. The trend from 2020 seems to be repeating, but more distinctly. While Congress, a national party contesting 61 seats, struggles with just five, AIMIM is in a stronger position within its focused area.
The conclusion is evident: Owaisi’s party has established itself as a lasting force in Seemanchal politics. The Mahagathbandhan’s choice to neglect AIMIM — on two occasions — has proven to be a costly mistake.