By Sudhanshu Kumar Patna: In geometry, the sum of any two sides of a triangle always exceeds the third. This principle holds true in Bihar’s political scenario as well, where alliances illustrate that any two major players—BJP, RJD, or JDU—dominate a third in a triangular competition. The 2025 assembly election results confirm these three as the enduring forces in the state, each commanding dedicated vote banks based on caste and religious affiliations. This rigid voter alignment characterizes Bihar’s electoral dynamics. Within the NDA, Narendra Modi’s national appeal and the BJP’s superior election machinery counterbalance the anti-incumbency sentiment against Nitish Kumar’s long tenure as Chief Minister.
The BJP’s increasing influence is reflected in the JDU’s declining seat share within the alliance, a trend observed over successive elections. Election engineering has overshadowed substantive issues, as preferences remained unaltered. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, despite being new, gained public attention and changed the conversation around education, migration, employment, and corruption. This compelled the ruling coalition to adjust their electoral strategy, relying on last-minute incentives, cash transfers, and utilizing networks like JEEViKA alongside administrative and fiscal resources. This shift is a notable departure from Nitish Kumar’s previous stance against such populism when JDU had a more significant influence in the state.
The RJD’s diminished seat count—first in the Lok Sabha elections and then in the 2025 assembly—indicates a void in the opposition. The three major parties have shared power over the past five years, and a similar fluidity in alliances cannot be dismissed going forward. This situation blurs the opposition identities for both BJP and RJD, neither of which has led the government in the last two decades. Additionally, the RJD bears the weight of its past governance. What maintains opposition votes is the hyper-local selection of candidates suited to caste demographics. However, consistency is lacking, as parties frequently alternate between governing and opposing, undermining the RJD’s reputation as a credible alternative to Nitish Kumar.
The results ensure continuity in governance but leave Bihar’s opposition landscape contested and open. The government remains unchanged, yet the opposition space in Bihar is unfilled. Jan Suraj possesses name recognition and a claim to specific issues; turning sympathy into votes requires patience, consistency, and continuous pressure on the ruling regime. Until a new entity emerges to fill this gap, Bihar’s political dynamics will continue to favor the ruling duo.
