India’s festive season e-commerce sales are set to achieve a historic milestone, with projections estimating spending to exceed ₹2.2 lakh crores. While cost and product variety continue to play significant roles, industry experts unanimously agree that trust has emerged as the most crucial factor influencing consumer decisions. During a webinar organized by InGovern Research Services focused on the 2025 Festive E-Commerce Forecast, industry leaders, analysts, and consumer advocates examined market trends, compared major platforms, and emphasized how consumer confidence in return policies, refunds, and transparency is transforming festive shopping. Shriram Subramanian, Founder and MD of InGovern Research Services, remarked, “Festive spending in India is increasing year-on-year, with digital platforms nearly doubling their market share from 13% to 26%.
It is noteworthy how rapidly consumers are allocating larger portions of their festive budgets online, motivated by trust in return policies, clear pricing, and growing ease with high-value purchases across various categories.” Sachin Taparia, CEO of LocalCircles, added insights about this year’s festive season, stating, “When consumers purchase expensive items online, such as smartphones or home appliances, they require complete assurance in the platform, as there is no physical interaction or tactile experience. Trust is essential in these situations.
Another common trend is that substantial discounts often encourage shoppers to exceed their initial spending intentions, resulting in budget overruns during the festive period.” Results from a recent LocalCircles survey presented at the webinar revealed that 89% of participants view trust as the most vital criterion when choosing a platform, with Amazon being the most favored e-commerce site, significantly ahead of Flipkart and Meesho. Madhumita Mohanty, a retail strategy consultant, provided a contrasting viewpoint on potential challenges, stating, “For consumers, returns are crucial and frequently taken for granted; however, return rates on online platforms are nearly three times higher than in physical stores. Given the absence of a tactile experience, consumers tend to utilize this option.
As e-commerce expands beyond metropolitan and Tier 1–2 cities, returns will not only pose logistical challenges but may also further compress margins.” Dr. Badri Narayanan, Fellow at NITI Aayog and Founder of Infinite Sum Modelling, discussed the competitive positioning of e-commerce platforms. “Amazon remains the dominant player in premium urban markets, holding a 40-45% market share among metro consumers. It is particularly preferred by higher-income groups due to its quality assurance and customer service. Flipkart, on the other hand, leads in Tier 1 cities, especially in the electronics and smartphone categories, while Meesho has established a strong presence in Tier 3+ markets, attracting users through affordability and accessibility,” he noted.
