Patna: A remarkable voter turnout in Bihar’s Seemanchal region has sparked intense political speculation regarding which coalition might benefit from this critical phase of the 2025 Assembly elections. This four-district area, comprising Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, and Purnia, has a significant Muslim population and is known for its polarized voting patterns. By 7pm on Tuesday, over 68% of votes were recorded in the second phase, with further increases anticipated as additional data is collected. Kishanganj and Katihar led the state with turnouts of 77.80% and 77.93%, respectively. In the first phase, the state saw a turnout of 65.08%, marking a historic high.
The unexpected increase in Seemanchal has taken political analysts by surprise, leading many to suggest that this surge could alter the dynamics across the 24 seats in the area. Historically, Seemanchal has fluctuated between different alliances; however, a greater turnout among Muslim voters has generally favored the opposition Mahagathbandhan. Some analysts, however, contend that the situation is more nuanced. Political commentator Priyaranjan Bharti noted, “Seemanchal has the highest Muslim population in Bihar — over 70% in Kishanganj and more than 40% in the other districts.
This often results in a natural consolidation of votes during major elections.” He added that the region also experiences substantial counter-polarization of Hindu votes, which has enabled BJP and JD(U) candidates to secure numerous seats, a trend expected to continue this time. This year’s turnout represents a significant increase from the 2020 Assembly elections, where participation was 64% in Kishanganj, 67.1% in Katihar, 62.3% in Araria, and 62.3% in Purnia. Current election data shows increases of up to 15 percentage points across these regions. In 2020, the NDA won 66 of the 122 seats that voted in the second phase, while the Mahagathbandhan captured 49 seats.
Results from Seemanchal were mixed: BJP won eight of the 24 seats, JD(U) took four, Congress five, RJD and CPI-ML secured one each, and AIMIM surprisingly claimed five. This year, the contest is more crowded, with Congress contesting 12 of the 24 seats, RJD nine, VIP two, and CPI-ML one. On the NDA side, BJP is contesting 11 seats, JD(U) 10, and LJP (Ram Vilas) three. AIMIM has candidates in 15 constituencies. Analysts emphasize that the ultimate outcome will hinge on how successfully parties have engaged women voters, who have shown notably high turnout this year. Final turnout statistics are expected to be published by the Election Commission later this week.
