Contrary to the majority of exit poll predictions and exceeding even Amit Shah’s optimistic forecast, the BJP–JDU-led National Democratic Alliance has shown a remarkably strong performance as initial trends from the Election Commission of India revealed a substantial lead in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. Within hours of the counting process, the NDA was leading on over 180 seats—significantly higher than both the exit poll predictions and Shah’s estimate of 160 seats. Home Minister Amit Shah had previously stated in a televised interview that the NDA would comfortably secure more than 160 seats in the 243-member assembly, asserting that Nitish Kumar remained firmly established as chief minister alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the national level.
While these figures are preliminary, they indicate a noticeable increase in support for the NDA. By approximately 12:20 am, ECI data indicated that the alliance had surpassed the 180-seat mark, while the Mahagathbandhan—primarily led by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD and the Congress—struggled to achieve even 60 seats. Although the numbers may change as counting progresses, the early momentum strongly favored the ruling coalition. Most earlier exit polls had suggested an NDA advantage ranging from 130 to 172 seats, with only one agency, Poll Diary, estimating a potential total as high as 209 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan appeared to be on track for a notable defeat, falling well short of the upper estimates of around 118 seats suggested by pollsters.