The initial exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections show a significant advantage for the NDA, with the People’s Pulse survey forecasting the alliance to win between 133 and 159 seats. The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan), led by the RJD and Congress, is anticipated to capture 75 to 101 seats, while smaller parties, including Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, and Tej Pratap Yadav’s Janshakti Janata Dal, may collectively secure 2 to 13 seats. The elections, conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11 across Bihar’s 243 constituencies, saw record voter turnout, exceeding 65 percent in the first phase and maintaining strong participation in the second.
Analysts suggest that the high turnout reflects a decisive voter sentiment, indicating a contest characterized by clear options — change or continuity. This election represents another chapter in Bihar’s extensive political history, where Nitish Kumar has been a central figure for two decades, governing through shifting alliances. Although the Grand Alliance briefly held power in 2015, Nitish was the face of that coalition before returning to the NDA. The People’s Pulse poll indicates that despite the introduction of new players, the central battle remains between the NDA and the Grand Alliance. The Jan Suraaj Party, led by strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor, was expected to be a wild card but is projected to have a limited impact in its first outing.
Likewise, AIMIM, which previously gained a foothold in Seemanchal, seems to have lost ground, likely reduced to one or two seats. Political analysts note that if the NDA’s projection of over 130 seats is accurate, it would signify a resurgence for Nitish Kumar and the BJP-led coalition following a campaign focused on stability and governance. Conversely, the opposition may face another period of reflection as it tries to translate crowd enthusiasm into electoral success. The final results will be revealed on November 14, determining whether the People’s Pulse predictions align with the will of Bihar’s voters or if, as often seen in the state, the electorate presents an unexpected outcome.
