Patna: Significant changes in Bihar’s political scenario are expected as projections indicate that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) might lose its Rajya Sabha seats by 2030. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a clear majority in the 2025 assembly elections, which will drastically alter the power dynamics in the upper house. Rajya Sabha representation is contingent upon the seat strength in the state assembly. With the NDA, led by the BJP–JDU alliance, anticipated to win all five seats that will become vacant in 2026 and another five in 2028, political assessments suggest a grim future for the RJD.
Once a pivotal player in Bihar politics under Lalu Prasad Yadav, the party could face its first absence from the Rajya Sabha in three decades. Currently, the RJD holds five Rajya Sabha seats, but these members are set to complete their terms over the next few years: April 2026: Prem Chand Gupta and A.D. Singh, July 2028: Faiz Ahmed, April 2030: Manoj Kumar Jha and Sanjay Yadav. By 2030, unless there are changes in electoral dynamics, all five positions may be lost to the party. Analysts point out that this decline is not merely numerical; it represents the diminishing influence of RJD-centric politics in a state where the party previously dominated governance, alliances, and caste mobilization.
In 2026, five members, including two from JDU, one from Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and two from RJD, will see their terms end. Given the NDA’s substantial majority in the upcoming assembly, forecasts reported by the Times of India suggest that all five seats will likely go to the ruling alliance, effectively excluding the RJD from the new upper house cohort. In 2028, another five members will retire: three from BJP, one from JDU, and one from RJD. If the assembly composition remains unchanged, the NDA is expected to secure all five seats, further diminishing the RJD’s legislative presence.
There are speculations about whether AIMIM could assist the RJD, as they have five MLAs in the new Bihar assembly, theoretically enabling the RJD to secure one seat in 2030. However, analysts consider this scenario unlikely, as smaller parties generally align according to strategic rather than ideological interests, making unconditional support from AIMIM improbable. Currently, the RJD’s prospects of returning to the Rajya Sabha in 2030 are described as “extremely slim.” For a party that has been a dominant force in Bihar politics for decades, the prospect of having zero representation in the Rajya Sabha signifies a profound political shift.
This situation not only reflects Tejashwi Yadav’s electoral challenges but also indicates the growing power of the NDA, which is increasingly shaping both state and national political outcomes. Political analysts note that this development highlights a broader transition: the diminishing role of the RJD in Bihar’s legislative future alongside the strengthening of the NDA’s position.
