New Delhi, May 10 (). The ABP/C-Voter exit polls have projected the Congress inching closer to a majority of 113 in the 224-member state assembly in Karnataka that goes to polls on Wednesday.
A closer analysis of the marginal seats where the margin of vote share is very small suggests that if the Congress is able to win these seats, it can get a majority in the state.
It is difficult to predict the results of statistically marginal seats, as even a few thousand votes can make a difference.
According to the ABP/C-Voter exit polls, there are 24 marginal seats in which the data indicates a BJP win, 18 marginal seats may go in favor of the Congress, while the JD(S) is predicted to win five seats.
Of the 24 marginal seats that the BJP is projected to win, the Congress is close to number two. Of the 18 marginal seats that the Congress is projected to win, the BJP is a close second in 14. Of the five marginal seats the JD(S) is projecting to win, Congress is second in three while BJP is second in two.
These 47 seats on the frontier of the state can decide the fate of major parties. Exit polls and actual results over the decades have proved that the party which leads the race usually gets a majority with the help of marginal seats. The latest example of this was seen in the assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh in December 2022.
In the small state, the Congress got around 38,000 votes more than the BJP. Nevertheless, it won most of the marginal seats and secured a comfortable majority.
If the Congress manages to get around 20 of the 47 marginal seats, it can get a comfortable majority in the state.
The results of the Karnataka elections will come on 13 May.
SGK
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