Patna: Following the completion of the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls published on Monday evening indicate a favorable outcome for the NDA, suggesting the alliance might maintain its governance in the state. Despite this, both analysts and voters express caution due to the inconsistent history of exit polls in Bihar’s elections. The Matrix–IANS exit poll projects the NDA to capture 48% of the vote share, in contrast to 38% for the Grand Alliance and 14% for other parties. The survey anticipates that Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) will emerge as the largest party, winning between 67 and 75 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 65 to 73 seats.
The RJD, under the leadership of Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, may achieve between 50 and 58 seats, according to the poll. Voting in Bihar took place across two phases for all 243 assembly seats, with a voter turnout of 65% in the first phase and a record 67% in the second phase, marking some of the highest figures in the state’s electoral history. Results are set to be announced on November 14. Exit polls, conducted immediately after voters cast their votes, aim to capture public sentiment by interviewing individuals outside polling stations. The gathered data is analyzed to forecast potential election results. However, the reliability of exit polls in Bihar has frequently been questioned.
In the 2015 Assembly elections, most predictions suggested a narrow win for the NDA, yet the Grand Alliance (RJD-JDU-Congress) achieved a significant majority. Conversely, in 2020, the situation reversed, with several exit polls predicting a victory for the RJD-led Grand Alliance, while the NDA ultimately formed the government with 125 seats. Political analysts note that Bihar’s varied electorate and localized voting behaviors render it one of the most difficult states for pollsters to accurately predict outcomes. ‘Exit polls provide a glimpse of voter sentiment, but Bihar has consistently demonstrated that its final decisions often contradict pre-election and post-voting forecasts,’ remarked a political analyst in Patna.