Patna: The Bihar Assembly election results provided a historic mandate on Friday, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surpassing the 200-seat threshold, coming remarkably close to its ambitious goal of “2025, 225, Nitish Again.” While the NDA did not reach the exact target of 225 out of 243 seats, the magnitude of its victory exceeded expectations, including its own. Most exit polls predicted a comfortable lead, but none anticipated a count exceeding 200. The Grand Alliance disintegrated across the state, with the RJD’s traditional Muslim–Yadav (MY) coalition sharply breaking down. In Seemanchal, a significant portion of the Muslim vote shifted to AIMIM, delivering a severe blow to Tejashwi Yadav’s coalition. The much-discussed “Jan Suraaj” wave also failed to materialize.
Tension During Counting in Kaimur Amid celebrations in other areas, violence erupted at the Mohania Market Committee in the Ramgarh Assembly constituency during the final round of counting. Delays in announcing the last round of results incited anger, leading BSP supporters to accuse officials of vote rigging and instigate riots. Police employed a lathi-charge to disperse the crowd, resulting in a stampede. Three policemen were injured due to stone-pelting. During the chaos, miscreants set fire to a Scorpio belonging to an Executive Officer from the Urban Housing and Development Department, causing panic in the area. Nitish Kumar is now ready to take the oath as Chief Minister for a record 10th time.
The results mirrored the 2010 scenario, with the JD(U) then emerging as the largest party with 115 seats, followed by the BJP with 91. This time, the BJP leads the tally, with the JD(U) as the second largest partner. Both parties contested 101 seats each. Key Takeaways: Congress secured 6 seats; AIMIM closely followed with 5. Of Bihar’s 29 ministers, 28 won their seats; only Sumit Singh (Chakai) lost. Jan Suraaj candidates forfeited deposits in 99% of constituencies. VIP, despite grand claims, failed to secure any seats. The narrowest victory was JD(U)’s Radhacharan Sah in Sandesh, winning by 27 votes, while the largest victory was JD(U)’s Kaladhar Mandal, who won Rupauli by 73,572 votes.
Why the NDA Won in Bihar: Direct economic benefits like a pre-poll transfer of ₹10,000 to Jeevika Didis, job promises, 120 free electricity units, and increased pensions garnered NDA support, particularly among women. The “Jungle Raj” narrative was effectively revived, linking fears to the Lalu-Rabri era once Tejashwi was named the CM face. The Grand Alliance’s campaign for SIR (special identity documents) boosted turnout but ultimately favored the NDA’s stronger organization. A focused campaign with early candidate selection and numerous rallies by PM Modi (20), CM Nitish Kumar (84), and Amit Shah (38) influenced voter sentiment. Voters preferred the continuity and stability offered by the JD(U)–BJP alliance.
Why the Grand Alliance Lost: Weak messaging made its announcements seem reactionary, while the government rapidly implemented its promises. Seat-sharing disputes persisted despite PM rallies, and confusion over the CM face weakened their appeal. Internal conflicts within Congress regarding ticket distribution, accusations of horse-trading, and protests diminished its credibility. Tejashwi mostly campaigned alone as top Congress leaders participated in only a few rallies. Mobilization issues arose from the Dularchand Yadav murder case and Anant Singh’s subsequent arrest, consolidating upper-caste votes against the alliance. Strongmen and Their Families: Out of 20 strongmen or their relatives contesting, 11 gained seats in the Assembly—10 from the NDA and 3 from the Grand Alliance.
Notable figures such as Amarendra Pandey (Kuchaykot), Bogo Singh (Matihani), Dhumal Singh (Ekma), and Randhir Singh (Manjhi) secured victories. Osama Shahab, son of the late Shahabuddin, won from Siwan, while Rakesh Ranjan, son of former MLA Visheshwar Ojha, also made his Assembly debut. Conversely, Hulas Pandey (Brahmapur) and Munna Shukla’s daughter Shivani (Lalganj) faced defeat.
Tej Pratap Yadav experienced defeat in Mahua, with his party JJD blaming “Jaichands” on social media and acknowledging the NDA’s cohesive strategy while referring to Prime Minister Modi as “a strong global leader.” Women’s Representation Rises: This election saw 88 women contest, with 28 emerging victorious: BJP: 10 women MLAs, JD(U): 9, RJD: 3 of 23 candidates, LJP (R): 3 of 6, HAM (S): 2 of 2, and Jan Suraaj: none of its candidates won. The NDA’s robust performance and the Grand Alliance’s fragmentation have once again transformed Bihar’s political landscape, paving the way for Nitish Kumar’s 10th term amid a sweeping mandate.