New Delhi: The results of the Bihar assembly elections have provided a clear outcome: voters overwhelmingly rejected the Congress–RJD Mahagathbandhan and granted a significant victory to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, closely aligning with most exit polls. Kamakhya Analytics, which estimated 167–187 seats for the NDA, was among the most precise forecasters, with the final tally falling within its predicted range. Matrix (147–167) and Today’s Chanakya (148–172) also indicated a strong NDA majority, with their predictions proving accurate once the counting was completed. Kamakhya Analytics garnered particular attention due to its performance. The electoral dynamics in Bihar are influenced by complex caste factors, local issues, the engagement of women voters, and sharply divided regional concerns.
In this context, analysts noted that Kamakhya’s booth-level sampling, demographic analysis, and survey methodology enabled it to gauge voter sentiment with remarkable accuracy. Predictions for the Mahagathbandhan were also aligned with the actual results, with Kamakhya projecting the alliance to secure between 54 and 74 seats and Today’s Chanakya estimating 65–89, reflecting the coalition’s limited chances of forming a government. Smaller parties’ forecasts were similarly accurate, with Matrix predicting five seats for JSP/JSUP and Axis My India estimating zero to two, both of which were within the actual results. People’s Pulse (NDA 133–159, GA 75–101) and the Bhaskar Exit Poll (NDA 145–160, GA 73–91) also reflected the final distribution.
Various agencies such as P-Mark, Polstrat, and People’s Insight indicated a clear NDA majority. This election cycle highlighted the advancements in methodology, with survey firms enhancing fieldwork, improving sampling methods, and relying on data-driven models. The accuracy of the final forecasts has challenged the Mahagathbandhan’s ongoing assertions that exit polls lack reliability. For both pollsters and political entities, the results in Bihar have provided a rare instance of alignment between predictions and actual outcomes.
