Elon Musk may not have to colonize Mars or deploy a fleet of fully autonomous robotaxis to earn billions from Tesla. A recent analysis by Reuters suggests that the billionaire could still gain over $50 billion from his new compensation package, even if he does not meet several of the company’s ambitious targets. Approved in September 2025, Tesla’s ten-year pay package is theoretically valued at up to $878 billion if Musk reaches what the board has termed ‘transformational’ milestones, which include advancements in robotics, AI, autonomous driving, and significant financial growth. The board has consistently stated that Musk would earn ‘zero’ if he fails to achieve these goals. However, the Reuters investigation uncovers a more lenient reality.
The payout structure allows Musk to earn tens of billions by meeting less demanding targets, such as moderate vehicle sales or growth in software subscriptions, without necessarily transforming Tesla into the revolutionary tech titan he envisions. Analysts have pointed out that Musk could earn $26 billion simply by meeting two relatively achievable milestones, a sum greater than the total lifetime earnings of the next eight highest-paid CEOs, including Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, according to Equilar data. While Tesla is known for its lofty aspirations, several automotive analysts have indicated that some new objectives appear surprisingly forgiving.
For instance, selling 1.2 million cars annually through 2035—around half a million fewer than the 2024 target—and achieving a $2 trillion valuation could result in an $8.2 billion payout. Certain ‘innovation’ goals also seem vaguely defined. Six experts in robotics and self-driving technologies have stated that Tesla’s milestones related to autonomy and robotics provide ‘ample wiggle room.’ The target of 10 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, for example, does not require the system to operate autonomously. As University of Miami law professor William Widen pointed out, the term ‘Full Self-Driving’ is ‘made-up.’ Tesla could achieve this goal merely by lowering the FSD price, currently set at $8,000 upfront or $99 per month.
The objective of having one million robotaxis ‘without a human driver’ also allows for interpretation. Experts suggested that Tesla could categorize cars operated remotely or with a safety operator present as meeting this requirement, something the company is reportedly already testing in Austin. Even the aim of producing one million robots is vague. Two robotics experts indicated that the description—’any robot or physical product with mobility using AI’—is so broad that it could encompass nearly any automated product. If Musk meets just two product-related goals and raises Tesla’s valuation to $2.5 trillion, he could earn $26.4 billion in stock; achieving three such goals with a $3 trillion valuation could yield $54.6 billion, without demonstrating true vehicle autonomy.
While Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management cautioned that investors might seek more ‘substance behind the spectacle,’ Tesla’s board maintains that Musk is uniquely capable of transforming the company into an AI leader. However, governance experts are skeptical. Wei Jiang, vice dean at Emory University, stated that the arrangement grants Musk ‘a monopoly on Tesla’s top job,’ which undermines sound corporate governance. The most challenging aspect of the plan may be the profit targets—ranging from $50 billion to $400 billion in EBITDA—a significant increase from $16.6 billion in 2024. Nevertheless, under Tesla’s framework, Musk could still earn substantial amounts even without achieving profit targets, as each milestone carries equal significance.
Ultimately, analysts like Kevin Murphy from USC believe Musk’s goals are ‘not much of a stretch.’ A consistent annual growth rate of 6.4% could elevate Tesla’s value to $2 trillion by 2035, even in the absence of groundbreaking innovations. Whether shareholders will continue to support such substantial rewards for moderate achievements remains a significant challenge for Tesla.