Patna: Following the conclusion of the second and last phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections on Tuesday, November 11, the JVC Exit Poll 2025 has shown a significant lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting that Nitish Kumar is likely to return as Chief Minister of Bihar. The two-phase election, conducted on November 6 and November 11, will have results announced on November 14. According to the JVC survey, the NDA appears to be well above the majority threshold, while the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is anticipated to fall short of 100 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
The exit poll indicates that the NDA might achieve 45% of the total vote share, compared to 42% for the Grand Alliance, 6% for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party (JSP), and 5% for others. Analyzing the poll data by region, the NDA has reportedly performed strongly in crucial zones of the state: Mithila region (42 seats): NDA 31–32, Grand Alliance 10–11 Magadh region (50 seats): NDA 21–27, Grand Alliance 23–29 Bhojpur region (55 seats): NDA 27–31, Grand Alliance 23–27, Others 0–1 Tirhut region (49 seats): NDA 32–35, Grand Alliance 13–14, Jan Suraj 0–1, Others 0–1 Seemanchal region (24 seats): NDA 10–11, Grand Alliance 9–13, Jan Suraj 0–1, Others 1–3 Anga region (23 seats): NDA 14, Grand Alliance 9.
The survey’s results highlight the durability of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, which seems to have preserved its influence in key areas like Tirhut and Mithila, while the Grand Alliance remains limited to certain regions in Magadh and Seemanchal. The Jan Suraj Party, under political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor, was anticipated to establish itself as a third option, but the exit poll indicates it has had a minimal electoral effect, although it may have reduced margins in some constituencies. Nonetheless, political analysts advise caution. Exit polls in Bihar have a track record of inaccuracies, as evidenced by the 2015 elections when most surveys predicted a close contest, yet the Grand Alliance secured a decisive victory.
