The Nobel Institute has expressed concerns about potential espionage following a notable increase in betting odds for Venezuelan Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. This increase was detected on Polymarket, an online prediction market, just hours prior to the official announcement of her receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. Her odds escalated from 3.75% to over 73% shortly after midnight local time on Friday. Kristian Berg Harpviken, the director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, stated that espionage is ‘highly likely.’ He noted that while espionage might create the appearance of insider leaks, such intentional leaks are improbable.
Harpviken remarked, ‘It’s too certain to say for sure, but it’s no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage.’ In contrast, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, the chairman of the Nobel Committee, has rejected any notion of an internal breach. He informed Norway’s NTB news agency that he doubts there have ever been leaks in the history of the prize. The selection process for the Nobel Peace Prize is among the most closely guarded secrets worldwide, with only a handful of individuals privy to the final decision before it is made public.
Machado was honored with the Nobel Peace Prize for her ‘tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.’ The award has elicited global political responses, including criticism from US President Donald Trump, who had previously advocated for the Nobel Peace Prize and denounced the decision as prioritizing ‘politics over peace.’
