A pre-election survey by IANS-Matrize News Communications forecasts a significant win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the forthcoming Bihar Assembly elections, estimating a 49 percent vote share and around 150–160 seats in the 243-member Assembly. The survey, titled ‘Bihar Vidhan Sabha Chunav Opinion Poll-2025,’ suggests that the ruling coalition, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, is poised to reinforce its influence in the state amidst ongoing discussions about unemployment, migration, and governance issues. Nitish Kumar continues to be the most favored candidate for chief minister, receiving support from 42% of respondents for another term.
This projected vote share marks a notable increase from the NDA’s 37.3 percent in the 2020 elections, where it narrowly surpassed the Opposition despite a nearly identical vote distribution. Within the alliance, the BJP is expected to garner 21 percent of votes and secure 80–85 seats, while JD(U) is anticipated to obtain 18 percent and 60–65 seats. Smaller coalition partners, including the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), are collectively projected to contribute approximately 10–15 seats. The Opposition INDIA Bloc, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties, is estimated to achieve 36 percent of the vote and 70–85 seats, slightly lower than its 2020 performance of 37.2 percent.